Sarasadat Makian soutient sa thèse

Soutenance en anglais.

Résumé :

Ecotourism, a sustainable approach to travel that emphasizes education and respect for nature and local communities, can conserve a country’s natural resources. Iran, with its abundant natural attractions, has significant potential for ecotourism. These attractions can promote well-being and adventure, but the future of ecotourism in Iran is uncertain due to inconsistent and unsustainable development, which has led to environmental degradation and limited resource enjoyment. A structured and forward-looking approach is needed for its ecotourism development.

This study examines future ecotourism development in Iran, using Ardabil Province as a case study. It aims to identify key factors influencing ecotourism development and develop scenarios for its future. These scenarios can provide policymakers and stakeholders with diverse visions for ecotourism, equipping them to prepare effectively for its potential impact on Iran’s environmental conservation and socio-economic growth.

This mixed methods study uses an exploratory framework to achieve its objectives. It’s a foresight research endeavor conducted in three stages. The first stage involved a literature review and 40 in-depth interviews with ecotourism experts. Thematic analysis identified 32 key factors influencing ecotourism’s future in Iran. Structural analysis using the MICMAC technique revealed seven key influential factors, including the formulation of policies and plans for ecotourism, the provision of financial support and investment for ecotourism, the prioritization of ecotourism development, the management of ecotourism development, the management of nature destinations, the assurance of sustainability in ecotourism, and the management of the resilience and impacts of climate change in ecotourism.

Formulated hypotheses based on structural analysis were evaluated through expert consultations via morphological analysis. This process yielded 25 future paths and four future scenarios for ecotourism in Iran by 2040. These scenarios, centered on desired objectives, include Emerald, Sapphire, Amethyst, and Ruby Scenarios. They address uncertainties like climate change and tourism governance. Each scenario presents potential future developments, including events, actors, and actions, to support policymakers and managers in making informed decisions and preparing for a desirable future in ecotourism. Examples from Ardabil Province illustrate the implementation of specific measures.

This study significantly contributes to ecotourism development by applying the French foresight approach and utilizing morphological analysis for scenario development. It highlights the importance of adopting a forward-looking perspective due to the high level of uncertainty in the field. Ecotourism governance must adopt this approach to integrate climate change adaptation strategies into sustainable development initiatives. The study demonstrates the value of foresight methodologies, empowering policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions aligned with ecotourism and environmental sustainability. It also presents theoretical, methodological, and practical implications.

Thèse dirigée par Philippe Bourdeau.